The Housing Market Is Bad but Not That Bad

Some historical perspective helps.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #real-estate-and-housing-residential, #united-states-economy

This Guy Says the Fed Has Got Everything Precisely Backward

A hedge fund manager’s unconventional theory of interest rates and growth.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #united-states-economy

Markets Rise Sharply, Seizing on Inflation Numbers

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states, #united-states-economy

Inflation Cooled in July, Welcome News for White House and Fed

Prices have increased rapidly since last year, but barely budged in July — a positive development, though not yet enough for a victory lap.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #renting-and-leasing-real-estate, #united-states-economy, #used-cars

What Today’s Inflation Report Means for the Federal Reserve

Fed officials are waiting for an inflation slowdown, and economists have predicted that this could mark the start of a deceleration.

#consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates

In an Unequal Economy, the Poor Face Inflation Now and Job Loss Later

Americans with low incomes are pulling back from buying even as their richer counterparts keep spending — with potentially big consequences.

#affordable-housing, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #high-net-worth-individuals, #income-inequality, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #personal-finances, #poverty, #renting-and-leasing-real-estate, #stimulus-economic, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

How This Economic Moment Rewrites the Rules

Jobs aplenty. Sizzling demand. If the United States is headed into a recession, it is taking an unusual route, with many markers of a boom.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #consumer-behavior, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #labor-and-jobs, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #williston-nd

Good News on Jobs May Mean Bad News Later as Hiring Spree Defies Fed

Employers hired rapidly and paid more in July, suggesting the Federal Reserve may have to remain aggressive in its effort to cool the economy.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #hiring-and-promotion, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries, #white-house-council-of-economic-advisers

With Surge in July, U.S. Recovers the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic

The increase of 528,000 outstripped expectations, and the gains were spread widely across industries. The jobless rate fell to 3.5 percent.

#federal-reserve-system, #hiring-and-promotion, #labor-and-jobs, #labor-department-us, #recession-and-depression, #unemployment, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

We Can’t Let Bad Vibes Lead Us to a Recession

When we think about things like inflation and monetary policy, it’s best to frame them through people. And people are, of course, silly and messy.

#consumer-behavior, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #powell-jerome-h, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

A Fed Pivot? Not Yet, Policymakers Suggest, as Rapid Inflation Lingers.

Stocks rose after the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, with investors hoping the central bank would dial back rate increases. Not so soon, officials indicated on Tuesday.

#daly-mary-c, #evans-charles-l, #federal-reserve-bank-of-chicago, #federal-reserve-bank-of-cleveland, #federal-reserve-bank-of-minneapolis, #federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york, #federal-reserve-bank-of-san-francisco, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #kashkari-neel-t, #mester-loretta-j, #powell-jerome-h, #united-states-economy

Reduce Climate Emissions and the Deficit? It Might Yet Be Possible.

The Schumer-Manchin compromise is a step in the right direction.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #inflation-reduction-act-of-2022, #manchin-joe-iii, #schumer-charles-e, #united-states-economy

Pay growth and prices picked up, keeping the Fed on track for rate increases.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge climbed rapidly in June. Wage and benefit gains are fast, too, separate data showed.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

The S&P 500 is about to have its best month since November 2020.

The rebound in stocks is a reflection that the current round of updates from corporate America are not as bad as feared. But there are still reasons for investors to be wary.

#company-reports, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

How Do Workers’ Wages Relate to Inflation?

Why workers’ pay has become central to inflation debates.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #labor-and-jobs, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

The Big Economic Question

It is not whether the U.S. is in a recession. It’s whether the economy will soon worsen.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-storyline-no, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

U.S. Economy Shows Another Decline, Fanning Recession Fears

Gross domestic product, in an initial reading, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter. President Biden said any troubles would be transitory.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #commerce-department, #consumer-behavior, #federal-reserve-system, #gross-domestic-product, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

How Goes the War on Inflation?

The news on prices is surprisingly good.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #unemployment, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Federal Reserve Makes Another Supersized Rate Increase to Tame Inflation

The central bank raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point and suggested additional large increases could be warranted.

#consumer-behavior, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #mortgages, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

How Will Interest Rate Increases Impact Inflation?

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to fight inflation. Some economists want more; some politicians want less. What’s the logic?

#consumer-behavior, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #summers-lawrence-h, #supply-chain, #united-states-economy, #warren-elizabeth

How U.S. Inflation Expectations Are Being Shaped by Consumer Choices

Economic policymakers are razor focused on inflation expectations after more than a year of rapid price increases. Consumers explain how they’re thinking about rising costs.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #supermarkets-and-grocery-stores, #united-states, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Fed Prepares Another Rate Increase as Wall Street Wonders What’s Next

Central bankers around the world have been picking up the pace of rate increases. Now the big question looms: When will they slow down?

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #consumer-behavior, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

What Is the Yield Curve? Wall Street’s Recession Alarm Is Ringing.

An inversion of the bond market’s yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century. It is happening again.

#credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #government-bonds, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

Inflation: A Revolution of Falling Expectations

Surprising hints that this may turn out OK.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #united-states-economy, #university-of-michigan

Global Central Banks Ramp Up Inflation Fight

Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Canada and parts of Asia are lifting interest rates rapidly as they try to wrestle breakneck inflation under control.

#bank-of-canada, #currency, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #european-central-bank, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #swiss-national-bank, #united-states-economy

Wonking Out: The Meaning of the Plunging Euro

This time, a weak currency does reflect a weak economy.

#currency, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #euro-currency, #european-central-bank, #federal-reserve-system, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #united-states-economy, #us-dollar-currency

Why Markets Shrugged Off Bad Inflation News

An ugly report may not be the shape of things to come.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

How to Invest During Inflation

While the news may indicate that the markets and economy are rocky, long-term investors can ride it out with a little luck and a lot of planning, our columnist says.

#content-type-service, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #stocks-and-bonds, #unemployment, #united-states-economy

High Inflation in June Puts Pressure on Interest Rates

Prices climbed 9.1 percent from a year earlier, ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #food, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states-economy

Inflation Soared in June, Pinching Consumers and Challenging Policymakers

Prices climbed 9.1 percent from a year earlier, ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #food, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states-economy

Euro Hits Parity With U.S. Dollar for First Time in 20 Years

In recent months, pressure on the euro has been mounting while investors have been flocking to the U.S. dollar, a haven in times of economic upheaval.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #currency, #euro-currency, #european-central-bank, #eurozone, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #lagarde-christine, #powell-jerome-h, #united-states-economy, #us-dollar-currency

The Humbug Economy

Different data are telling different stories.

#bureau-of-labor-statistics, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #labor-and-jobs, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Crypto Is Crashing. Where Were the Regulators?

An anatomy materializes of a postmodern pyramid scheme.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #brainard-lael, #digital-currency-group-inc, #federal-reserve-system, #mobile-commerce-and-payments, #regulation-and-deregulation-of-industry, #united-states-economy, #venmo, #virtual-currency

Relief Eludes Many Renters as Fed Raises Interest Rates

As the central bank sharply increases borrowing costs, it could lock would-be home buyers into rentals and keep a hot market under pressure.

#affordable-housing, #building-construction, #consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #renting-and-leasing-real-estate, #united-states-economy

U.S. Economy Added 372,000 Jobs in June, Defying Slowdown Fears

The strong Labor Department report comes as consumers and businesses express increasing concern about a downturn.

#federal-reserve-system, #hiring-and-promotion, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #labor-department-us, #recession-and-depression, #unemployment, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Wonking Out: Rockets, Feathers and Prices at the Pump

Yes, market power can worsen inflation.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates

Strong Wage and Jobs Growth Keeps Fed on Track for Big Rate Increase

The Federal Reserve is trying to cool down the economy to bring inflation under control, but the job market is still going strong.

#consumer-price-index, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #powell-jerome-h, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries, #williams-john-c

That Was the Stagflation That Was

Markets are sounding the all-clear. Is the Fed listening?

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Fed officials, spooked by data, fretted in June about inflation becoming entrenched.

Central bankers raised rates by the most since 1994 last month, and minutes from the gathering explained their logic.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #consumer-price-index, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #government-bonds, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

We Are Not Powerless Against a Recession

Rushing in to confront a crisis is always better than letting it simply unfold.

#coronavirus-aid-relief-and-economic-security-act-2020, #corporate-taxes, #federal-reserve-system, #labor-and-jobs, #recession-and-depression, #stimulus-economic, #unemployment, #unemployment-insurance, #united-states-economy

Wonking Out: Taking the ‘Flation’ Out of Stagflation

The trench seems to have recovered its anchor, or something.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #powell-jerome-h, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

What Is A Recession and When Is the Next One Going to Begin?

Recessions since World War II have lasted just over 10 months each, on average. The last one, which began in 2020, lasted just two months.

#federal-reserve-system, #gross-domestic-product, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #national-bureau-of-economic-research, #recession-and-depression, #stocks-and-bonds

Fed Confronts a ‘New World’ of Inflation

Central banks had a longstanding playbook for how inflation worked. In the postpandemic era, all bets are off.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #shortages, #supply-chain, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Beware the Dangers of Sado-Monetarism

The Fed mustn’t get bullied into excessive harshness.

#economic-conditions-and-trends, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #united-states-economy, #volcker-paul-a

Why the Fed Is Risking a Recession

Home sales are flagging and the rest of the economy is expected to slow, maybe sharply, as rates increase. Why is the Federal Reserve doing this?

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

Is the Era of Cheap Money Over?

The fundamentals behind low interest rates haven’t gone away.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #mencken-h-l

Wonking Out: Wasn’t Bitcoin Supposed to Be a Hedge Against Inflation?

Another crypto myth bites the dust.

#bitcoin-currency, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #gold, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #united-states-economy, #us-dollar-currency, #virtual-currency

On Inflation and the Food Crisis, the World Can Work Together or Fall Apart

No single country can solve the problem of rising food and fuel costs.

#africa, #biden-joseph-r-jr, #black-sea, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #embargoes-and-sanctions, #federal-reserve-system, #food, #food-insecurity, #global-warming, #grain, #guterres-antonio, #inflation-economics, #international-relations, #international-trade-and-world-market, #middle-east, #odessa-ukraine, #politics-and-government, #ports, #putin-vladimir-v, #russia, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022, #ships-and-shipping, #shortages, #third-world-and-developing-countries, #ukraine, #united-states-economy, #united-states-international-relations, #wheat

Wall Street Has Its Worst Week Since March 2020

The selling was fueled by persistently high inflation and fears that the Fed’s efforts to tame it with higher interest rates will choke growth.

#consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds

Inflation Expected to Remain High Even as Economy Slows and Layoffs Rise

Inflation is expected to remain high later this year even as the economy slows and layoffs rise. Already, signs of financial stress are surfacing.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #labor-and-jobs, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #personal-finances, #recession-and-depression, #shutdowns-institutional, #stimulus-economic, #unemployment-insurance, #united-states-economy