Recessions since World War II have lasted just over 10 months each, on average. The last one, which began in 2020, lasted just two months.
Tag Archives: Interest Rates
Fed Confronts a ‘New World’ of Inflation
Central banks had a longstanding playbook for how inflation worked. In the postpandemic era, all bets are off.
Beware the Dangers of Sado-Monetarism
The Fed mustn’t get bullied into excessive harshness.
Why the Fed Is Risking a Recession
Home sales are flagging and the rest of the economy is expected to slow, maybe sharply, as rates increase. Why is the Federal Reserve doing this?
Is the Era of Cheap Money Over?
The fundamentals behind low interest rates haven’t gone away.
Wonking Out: Wasn’t Bitcoin Supposed to Be a Hedge Against Inflation?
Another crypto myth bites the dust.
Wall Street Has Its Worst Week Since March 2020
The selling was fueled by persistently high inflation and fears that the Fed’s efforts to tame it with higher interest rates will choke growth.
The Fed’s Newfound Aggressiveness Is Concerning
Its fight against inflation could very well cause a recession.
Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.78 Percent, Rising at the Fastest Pace Since 1987
The climb in mortgage rates, coupled with skyrocketing home prices, has eroded what prospective home buyers can afford.
Musk to Attend Twitter All-Hands Meeting
Musk will attend a virtual all-hands meeting as his $44 billion acquisition of the company moves ahead, despite his hand-wringing about bots.
Bank of England raises rates for a fifth time, to 1.25 percent.
Inflation is reaching deeper into the British economy, the bank said, as businesses raise prices and workers seek higher pay.
Bear Markets and Recessions Happen More Often Than You Think
The U.S. has been in recession 14 percent of the time since World War II. But being prepared can minimize hardship and even offer investing opportunities.
The Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Points to Tackle Inflation
Central bankers raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, and signaled that they expect rates to be sharply higher by the end of the year.
What the Fed’s Rate Hike Means for Mortgages
Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are influenced by inflation and the Fed’s actions, among other things.
The Fed Should Make Amends for Its Mistakes
A 75-basis-point increase, along with the will to tackle inflation aggressively, would shore up the bank’s shaky credibility.
What the Fed’s Rate Hike Means for Credit Cards and Student Loans
Consumers can expect to pay more for some of life’s most common kinds of borrowing.
Fed Set to Lift Rates as ‘Soft-ish Landing’ Becomes a Harder Sell
The central bank has hoped to cool down the economy without pushing unemployment much higher. Stubborn inflation narrows that path.
Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s
The Federal Reserve has the tools that it needs. Now it should use them.
The Fed May Discuss Biggest Interest Rate Increase Since 1994
Central bankers had signaled that they would raise rates by half a point if data shaped up as expected. Inflation is instead running hotter.
If You Must Point Fingers on Inflation, Here’s Where to Point Them
The Fed continues to evade accountability for inflation.
The Fed, Not Democrats, Got Us Into This Inflation Mess
The Fed continues to evade accountability for inflation
Inflation in the United States: What You Need to Know
Inflation is a tricky problem, but it has a few clear causes and consequences, and policymakers are working to bring it to heel.
Wonking Out: Why Monetary Policy Has Gotten So Hard
If you aren’t taking risks, you aren’t doing your job.
How Inflation Is Affecting Money Market Funds
At last, interest rates for money market funds have started to rise. But inflation means that in real terms, you’re still losing money.
Persistent Inflation Puts Yellen in the Spotlight
The Treasury secretary’s recent comments about rising prices have put the Biden administration on the defensive.
Wonking Out: How Low Must Inflation Go?
The peculiarity of the 2 percent target.
Fed officials are looking for slower job growth. They’re still looking.
Central bankers are waiting for signs that momentum in the economy is easing to a more sustainable level as they fight inflation.
Why a Not-So-Hot Economy Might Be Good News
As the Federal Reserve tries to rein in inflation without causing a recession, slower job creation and wage growth could be a plus.
Why SPACS Are Flailing as Market Conditions Shift
For a time, SPACs were the preferred way for companies to go public. But changing market conditions and the threat of regulation are making Wall Street lose its appetite.
Eurozone Inflation Hits Highest Level Since Creation of the Euro
The economic toll of Russia’s war on Ukraine keeps widening, with price rises in Germany hitting a record and inflation in Estonia topping 20 percent.
Wall Street’s Losing Streak Ends, but Uncertainty That Drove It Lingers
As stocks have tumbled this year, predictions that the selling is over have been wrong time and again.
Housing Market Has Altered the Math of Moving
The housing market has altered the math of moving for nearly everyone.
Fed Minutes Show Officials Expecting to Raise Rates Three Times to Address Inflation
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting underscored the deep concern within the central bank about rapidly rising prices that have far exceeded the Fed’s target.
Why Has the CPI Inflation Calculation Changed Over Time?
As prices soar, some critics are raising doubts about the official inflation figures. But many economists say the figures are an accurate snapshot of rising prices.
Weakened Euro May Become Equal to the U.S. Dollar
The euro hasn’t fallen below the one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for two decades. But as economic risks grow, more analysts predict deeper lows for the shared currency.
Economic Headwinds Mount as Leaders Weigh Costs of Confronting Russia
Top economic officials are gathering this week to discuss how to keep pressure on Vladimir V. Putin without sinking their economies.
The Economy Is Weird. Two Experts on Where It Goes From Here.
Is the U.S. economy really in bad shape, and is a recession coming?
Poor Countries Face a Mounting Catastrophe Fueled by Inflation and Debt
Russia’s war in Ukraine is combining with a global tightening of credit and an economic slowdown in China to sow misery in low- and middle-income countries.
What Higher Interest Rates Could Mean for Jobs
Layoffs are up only minimally, and employers may be averse to shedding workers after experiencing the challenges of rehiring.
Bernanke’s Economic Warning
The former Federal Reserve chair warns that the U.S. could be headed for a period of “stagflation.”
How Do Higher Interest Rates Bring Down Inflation?
Our columnist is responding to readers’ questions. This week, he focuses on inflation, with the help of a bond maven and a Nobel laureate.
Stocks Return to Earth, With the S&P 500 Nearing a Bear Market
The market has been producing double-digit returns for investors, even at moments of great national strife. But the party has ended and it may be a long time before it begins again.
Wall Street Slide Continues, With S&P 500 Edging Closer to Bear Market
Concerns about inflation and interest rates ignited the sell-off. But it has taken on a life of its own. Bringing inflation down will “include some pain,” the Fed chair said.
Inflation Anger
Inflation is still high — and many Americans are upset.
Rising food prices drive German inflation to a second consecutive record.
Germany saw consumer prices rise 7.8 percent in April, as compared with a year ago, driven by high food and energy prices pushed up by the war in Ukraine.
Fear and Loathing Return to Tech Start-Ups
Workers are dumping their stock, companies are cutting costs, and layoffs abound as troubling economic forces hit tech start-ups.
Fed Confronts Why It May Have Acted Too Slowly on Inflation
Central bankers have been asking whether they should have reacted faster to rising inflation last year — and are learning from the recent past.
Japan Has Long Sought More Inflation and a Weak Yen. But Not Like This.
Rapidly rising food and energy costs, coupled with a plunging yen that has hit a 20-year low against the dollar, are weighing on a Japanese economy struggling to emerge from the pandemic.
Fed Officials Are on the Defensive as High Inflation Lingers
Critics have accused the Federal Reserve of not reacting quickly enough to tame rising prices. On Friday, a Fed governor explained why it took so long.
April Jobs Report: Gain of 428,000 Shows Vibrant Labor Market
The Labor Department reported a gain of 428,000 jobs in April, along with a 5.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings from a year earlier.