What Is A Recession and When Is the Next One Going to Begin?

Recessions since World War II have lasted just over 10 months each, on average. The last one, which began in 2020, lasted just two months.

#federal-reserve-system, #gross-domestic-product, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #national-bureau-of-economic-research, #recession-and-depression, #stocks-and-bonds

Fed Confronts a ‘New World’ of Inflation

Central banks had a longstanding playbook for how inflation worked. In the postpandemic era, all bets are off.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #shortages, #supply-chain, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Beware the Dangers of Sado-Monetarism

The Fed mustn’t get bullied into excessive harshness.

#economic-conditions-and-trends, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #united-states-economy, #volcker-paul-a

Why the Fed Is Risking a Recession

Home sales are flagging and the rest of the economy is expected to slow, maybe sharply, as rates increase. Why is the Federal Reserve doing this?

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

Is the Era of Cheap Money Over?

The fundamentals behind low interest rates haven’t gone away.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #mencken-h-l

Wonking Out: Wasn’t Bitcoin Supposed to Be a Hedge Against Inflation?

Another crypto myth bites the dust.

#bitcoin-currency, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #gold, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #united-states-economy, #us-dollar-currency, #virtual-currency

Wall Street Has Its Worst Week Since March 2020

The selling was fueled by persistently high inflation and fears that the Fed’s efforts to tame it with higher interest rates will choke growth.

#consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds

The Fed’s Newfound Aggressiveness Is Concerning

Its fight against inflation could very well cause a recession.

#federal-open-market-committee, #george-esther-l, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

Mortgage Rates Jump to 5.78 Percent, Rising at the Fastest Pace Since 1987

The climb in mortgage rates, coupled with skyrocketing home prices, has eroded what prospective home buyers can afford.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #federal-home-loan-mortgage-corp-freddie-mac, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #mortgages, #united-states-economy

Musk to Attend Twitter All-Hands Meeting

Musk will attend a virtual all-hands meeting as his $44 billion acquisition of the company moves ahead, despite his hand-wringing about bots.

#abbott-laboratories, #appointments-and-executive-changes, #arm-holdings-plc, #artificial-intelligence, #biden-joseph-r-jr, #blackstone-group-the, #celsius-network-llc, #citigroup-inc, #computers-and-the-internet, #crown-resorts-ltd, #environmental-protection-agency, #federal-reserve-system, #infant-formulas, #interest-rates, #internal-storyline-no, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #musk-elon, #regulation-and-deregulation-of-industry, #relocation-of-business, #social-media, #united-states, #workplace-hazards-and-violations

Bank of England raises rates for a fifth time, to 1.25 percent.

Inflation is reaching deeper into the British economy, the bank said, as businesses raise prices and workers seek higher pay.

#bank-of-england, #banking-and-financial-institutions, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #great-britain, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #wages-and-salaries

Bear Markets and Recessions Happen More Often Than You Think

The U.S. has been in recession 14 percent of the time since World War II. But being prepared can minimize hardship and even offer investing opportunities.

#asset-allocation-personal-finances, #bernanke-ben-s, #content-type-service, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #mehta-salil-1973, #national-bureau-of-economic-research, #recession-and-depression, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds

The Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Points to Tackle Inflation

Central bankers raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, and signaled that they expect rates to be sharply higher by the end of the year.

#consumer-price-index, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

What the Fed’s Rate Hike Means for Mortgages

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages track the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are influenced by inflation and the Fed’s actions, among other things.

#credit-and-debt, #federal-home-loan-mortgage-corp-freddie-mac, #federal-reserve-system, #home-equity-loans, #interest-rates, #mortgages

The Fed Should Make Amends for Its Mistakes

A 75-basis-point increase, along with the will to tackle inflation aggressively, would shore up the bank’s shaky credibility.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

What the Fed’s Rate Hike Means for Credit Cards and Student Loans

Consumers can expect to pay more for some of life’s most common kinds of borrowing.

#automobile-financing, #credit-cards, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #student-loans

Fed Set to Lift Rates as ‘Soft-ish Landing’ Becomes a Harder Sell

The central bank has hoped to cool down the economy without pushing unemployment much higher. Stubborn inflation narrows that path.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s

The Federal Reserve has the tools that it needs. Now it should use them.

#burns-arthur-f, #consumer-price-index, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #martin-william-mcchesney, #nixon-richard-milhous, #powell-jerome-h, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #volcker-paul-a

The Fed May Discuss Biggest Interest Rate Increase Since 1994

Central bankers had signaled that they would raise rates by half a point if data shaped up as expected. Inflation is instead running hotter.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states, #united-states-economy

If You Must Point Fingers on Inflation, Here’s Where to Point Them

The Fed continues to evade accountability for inflation.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #republican-party, #united-states-economy

The Fed, Not Democrats, Got Us Into This Inflation Mess

The Fed continues to evade accountability for inflation

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #republican-party, #united-states-economy

Inflation in the United States: What You Need to Know

Inflation is a tricky problem, but it has a few clear causes and consequences, and policymakers are working to bring it to heel.

#consumer-price-index, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #price-gouging, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #supply-chain, #united-states, #united-states-economy

Wonking Out: Why Monetary Policy Has Gotten So Hard

If you aren’t taking risks, you aren’t doing your job.

#economics-theory-and-philosophy, #european-central-bank, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #lagarde-christine, #powell-jerome-h, #united-states-economy

How Inflation Is Affecting Money Market Funds

At last, interest rates for money market funds have started to rise. But inflation means that in real terms, you’re still losing money.

#content-type-service, #crane-peter-g, #federal-open-market-committee, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #money-market-mutual-funds, #mutual-funds, #savings, #t-rowe-price-group-inc

Persistent Inflation Puts Yellen in the Spotlight

The Treasury secretary’s recent comments about rising prices have put the Biden administration on the defensive.

#american-rescue-plan-2021, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #supply-chain, #united-states, #united-states-economy, #yellen-janet-l

Wonking Out: How Low Must Inflation Go?

The peculiarity of the 2 percent target.

#blanchard-olivier-j, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-sub-only-nl, #international-trade-and-world-market, #new-zealand

Fed officials are looking for slower job growth. They’re still looking.

Central bankers are waiting for signs that momentum in the economy is easing to a more sustainable level as they fight inflation.

#credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Why a Not-So-Hot Economy Might Be Good News

As the Federal Reserve tries to rein in inflation without causing a recession, slower job creation and wage growth could be a plus.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries

Why SPACS Are Flailing as Market Conditions Shift

For a time, SPACs were the preferred way for companies to go public. But changing market conditions and the threat of regulation are making Wall Street lose its appetite.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #inflation-economics, #initial-public-offerings, #interest-rates, #mergers-acquisitions-and-divestitures, #regulation-and-deregulation-of-industry, #special-purpose-acquisition-companies-spac, #start-ups

Eurozone Inflation Hits Highest Level Since Creation of the Euro

The economic toll of Russia’s war on Ukraine keeps widening, with price rises in Germany hitting a record and inflation in Estonia topping 20 percent.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #euro-currency, #europe, #european-central-bank, #eurozone, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates

Wall Street’s Losing Streak Ends, but Uncertainty That Drove It Lingers

As stocks have tumbled this year, predictions that the selling is over have been wrong time and again.

#consumer-behavior, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #gross-domestic-product, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #shopping-and-retail, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

Housing Market Has Altered the Math of Moving

The housing market has altered the math of moving for nearly everyone.

#interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #landlords, #mortgages, #real-estate-and-housing-residential, #renting-and-leasing-real-estate, #united-states-economy

Fed Minutes Show Officials Expecting to Raise Rates Three Times to Address Inflation

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting underscored the deep concern within the central bank about rapidly rising prices that have far exceeded the Fed’s target.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #powell-jerome-h, #united-states-economy

Why Has the CPI Inflation Calculation Changed Over Time?

As prices soar, some critics are raising doubts about the official inflation figures. But many economists say the figures are an accurate snapshot of rising prices.

#bureau-of-labor-statistics, #consumer-price-index, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #real-estate-and-housing-residential, #renting-and-leasing-real-estate, #united-states-economy

Weakened Euro May Become Equal to the U.S. Dollar

The euro hasn’t fallen below the one-to-one exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for two decades. But as economic risks grow, more analysts predict deeper lows for the shared currency.

#currency, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #euro-currency, #europe, #european-central-bank, #eurozone, #interest-rates, #international-trade-and-world-market, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022, #united-states, #us-dollar-currency

Economic Headwinds Mount as Leaders Weigh Costs of Confronting Russia

Top economic officials are gathering this week to discuss how to keep pressure on Vladimir V. Putin without sinking their economies.

#africa, #bonn-germany, #china, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #embargoes-and-sanctions, #europe, #food, #group-of-seven, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #international-trade-and-world-market, #oil-petroleum-and-gasoline, #politics-and-government, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #russia, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022, #shortages

The Economy Is Weird. Two Experts on Where It Goes From Here.

Is the U.S. economy really in bad shape, and is a recession coming?

#audio-neutral-informative, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #recession-and-depression, #unemployment, #united-states-economy

Poor Countries Face a Mounting Catastrophe Fueled by Inflation and Debt

Russia’s war in Ukraine is combining with a global tightening of credit and an economic slowdown in China to sow misery in low- and middle-income countries.

#africa, #brazil, #bursa-turkey, #cameroon, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #embargoes-and-sanctions, #far-east-south-and-southeast-asia-and-pacific-areas, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #international-monetary-fund, #middle-east-and-africa-migrant-crisis, #pakistan, #politics-and-government, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #sudan, #third-world-and-developing-countries, #united-states-economy, #war-and-armed-conflicts, #wheat, #yemen

What Higher Interest Rates Could Mean for Jobs

Layoffs are up only minimally, and employers may be averse to shedding workers after experiencing the challenges of rehiring.

#federal-reserve-system, #hiring-and-promotion, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #recession-and-depression, #unemployment, #united-states-economy

Bernanke’s Economic Warning

The former Federal Reserve chair warns that the U.S. could be headed for a period of “stagflation.”

#bernanke-ben-s, #bezos-jeffrey-p, #corporate-taxes, #federal-reserve-system, #federal-taxes-us, #interest-rates, #politics-and-government, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022, #subprime-mortgage-crisis, #supply-chain, #united-states, #united-states-economy

How Do Higher Interest Rates Bring Down Inflation?

Our columnist is responding to readers’ questions. This week, he focuses on inflation, with the help of a bond maven and a Nobel laureate.

#consumer-price-index, #content-type-service, #credit-and-debt, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #jones-kathy, #personal-finances, #phelps-edmund-s, #stocks-and-bonds, #treasury-department, #united-states-economy

Stocks Return to Earth, With the S&P 500 Nearing a Bear Market

The market has been producing double-digit returns for investors, even at moments of great national strife. But the party has ended and it may be a long time before it begins again.

#economic-conditions-and-trends, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

Wall Street Slide Continues, With S&P 500 Edging Closer to Bear Market

Concerns about inflation and interest rates ignited the sell-off. But it has taken on a life of its own. Bringing inflation down will “include some pain,” the Fed chair said.

#federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #standardpoors-500-stock-index, #stocks-and-bonds, #united-states-economy

Inflation Anger

Inflation is still high — and many Americans are upset.

#inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #internal-storyline-no, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #recession-and-depression, #united-states-economy

Rising food prices drive German inflation to a second consecutive record.

Germany saw consumer prices rise 7.8 percent in April, as compared with a year ago, driven by high food and energy prices pushed up by the war in Ukraine.

#consumer-price-index, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #europe, #germany, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #lagarde-christine, #nagel-joachim, #prices-fares-fees-and-rates, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022

Fear and Loathing Return to Tech Start-Ups

Workers are dumping their stock, companies are cutting costs, and layoffs abound as troubling economic forces hit tech start-ups.

#computers-and-the-internet, #entrepreneurship, #initial-public-offerings, #interest-rates, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #start-ups, #stocks-and-bonds, #venture-capital

Fed Confronts Why It May Have Acted Too Slowly on Inflation

Central bankers have been asking whether they should have reacted faster to rising inflation last year — and are learning from the recent past.

#biden-joseph-r-jr, #bostic-raphael-w, #clarida-richard-h-1957, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #mester-loretta-j, #powell-jerome-h, #quantitative-easing, #quarles-randal-k, #united-states-economy, #waller-christopher-1959

Japan Has Long Sought More Inflation and a Weak Yen. But Not Like This.

Rapidly rising food and energy costs, coupled with a plunging yen that has hit a 20-year low against the dollar, are weighing on a Japanese economy struggling to emerge from the pandemic.

#bank-of-japan, #economic-conditions-and-trends, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #interest-rates, #japan, #kishida-fumio, #kuroda-haruhiko, #russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022, #yen-currency

Fed Officials Are on the Defensive as High Inflation Lingers

Critics have accused the Federal Reserve of not reacting quickly enough to tame rising prices. On Friday, a Fed governor explained why it took so long.

#banking-and-financial-institutions, #federal-reserve-bank-of-minneapolis, #federal-reserve-system, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #kashkari-neel-t, #powell-jerome-h, #summers-lawrence-h, #treasury-department, #united-states-economy, #waller-christopher-1959, #warsh-kevin-m

April Jobs Report: Gain of 428,000 Shows Vibrant Labor Market

The Labor Department reported a gain of 428,000 jobs in April, along with a 5.5 percent increase in average hourly earnings from a year earlier.

#hiring-and-promotion, #inflation-economics, #interest-rates, #labor-and-jobs, #labor-department-us, #unemployment, #united-states-economy, #wages-and-salaries