2 Million Runs: Baseball on the Verge of Mile

There was much fanfare in 1975 when Bob Watson scored baseball’s millionth run. With baseball’s historical stats in flux, the two millionth will score this week without much fuss.

#baseball, #baseball-reference, #elias-sports-bureau, #rose-pete, #statistics, #thorn-john, #watson-bob

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How the Human Life Span Doubled in 100 Years

Between 1920 and 2020, the average human life span doubled. How did we do it? Science mattered — but so did activism.

#antibiotics, #cholera, #coronavirus-risks-and-safety-concerns, #disease-rates, #epidemics, #fleming-alexander, #food-and-drug-administration, #infant-mortality, #influenza-epidemic-1918-19, #longevity, #milk, #montagu-mary-wortley, #pasteur-louis, #population, #salk-jonas-e, #smallpox, #statistics, #vaccination-and-immunization

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Madison Bumgarner Throws a No-Hitter. Kind Of.

In a game limited to seven innings as part of a doubleheader, the Arizona lefty gets a shutout but won’t be credited with a no-no.

#arizona-diamondbacks, #atlanta-braves, #baseball, #bumgarner-madison, #elias-sports-bureau, #major-league-baseball, #statistics

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Justice for the Negro Leagues Will Mean More Than Just Stats

Major League Baseball now wants to welcome Negro-leagues statistics into its record books — but the numbers are just a small part of what needs to be remembered.

#aaron-hank, #baseball, #baseball-hall-of-fame, #bell-cool-papa, #black-people, #frank-grant, #gibson-josh-1911-47, #leon-day, #major-league-baseball, #minor-leagues, #negro-league, #paige-satchel, #records-and-achievements, #segregation-and-desegregation, #statistics

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His Job Is Counting Stephen Curry’s 3-Pointers. You’d Retire, Too.

On the heels of Curry’s 62-point explosion (and after 57 years in his role), Fred Kast is retiring as the Golden State Warriors’ official scorekeeper.

#basketball, #golden-state-warriors, #kast-fred, #statistics

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Will My Popcorn Explode?

The odds that all of your popcorn kernels will pop simultaneously aren’t zero. Maybe think instead of the multiple lotteries you’re more likely to win.

#noise, #popcorn, #statistics, #your-feed-science

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New Data Triples Russia’s Covid-19 Death Toll

The state statistics agency reported over 200,000 more deaths up to November than in 2019, which a senior official attributed largely to the coronavirus, even as the official count remained below 60,000.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #putin-vladimir-v, #russia, #statistics

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M.L.B.’s Records Were Never Real. But the Racism Was. Ask Satchel Paige.

Major League Baseball’s plan to formally recognize the Negro League exposes the ugliness that has existed all along.

#baseball, #black-people, #civil-rights-movement-1954-68, #major-league-baseball, #negro-league, #orosco-jesse, #race-and-ethnicity, #statistics, #united-states

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M.L.B. Will Add Negro Leagues to Official Records

More than 3,400 players from seven leagues that operated from 1920 to 1948 will now be considered major leaguers in a move that will shake up the record books.

#kendrick-bob, #major-league-baseball, #manfred-robert-d, #negro-league, #statistics

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Two Reasons the Texas Election Case Is Faulty

Texas has asked the Supreme Court to reverse the election results, but the case’s legal argument is flawed and its statistical assertion that Joe Biden had a minuscule chance to win is “comical,” experts said.

#paxton-ken, #presidential-election-of-2020, #statistics, #suits-and-litigation-civil, #supreme-court-us, #texas

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The Pandemic’s Real Toll? 300,000 Deaths, and It’s Not Just From the Coronavirus

A C.D.C. analysis finds that overall death rates have risen, particularly among young adults and people of color.

#alzheimers-disease, #black-people, #centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #diabetes, #heart, #jama-journal-of-american-medical-assn, #millennial-generation, #minorities, #native-americans, #statistics, #united-states, #your-feed-science

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Why Unemployment Claims May Be Overcounted by Millions

Weekly tallies of jobless claims were not meant to be treated as an economic indicator. The pandemic has exposed the shortcomings of doing so.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #coronavirus-aid-relief-and-economic-security-act-2020, #freelancing-self-employment-and-independent-contracting, #labor-and-jobs, #labor-department-us, #layoffs-and-job-reductions, #states-us, #statistics, #unemployment, #unemployment-insurance, #united-states-economy

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How the Warsaw Ghetto beat back typhus during World War II

Painting by Israel Bernbaum depicting Jewish children in Warsaw Ghetto and in the death camps (1981).

Enlarge / Painting by Israel Bernbaum depicting Jewish children in Warsaw Ghetto and in the death camps (1981). (credit: Monclair State University collection)

During the Nazi occupation of Poland during World War II, Jewish residents in Warsaw were forcibly confined to a district known as the Warsaw Ghetto. The crowded, unsanitary conditions and meager food rations predictably led to a deadly outbreak of typhus fever in 1941. But the outbreak mysteriously halted before winter arrived, rather than becoming more virulent with the colder weather. According to a recent paper in the journal Science Advances, it was measures put into place by the ghetto doctors and Jewish council members that curbed the spread of typhus: specifically, social distancing, self-isolation, public lectures, and the establishment of an underground university to train medical students.

Typhus (aka “jail fever” or “gaol fever”) has been around for centuries. These days, outbreaks are relatively rare, limited to regions with bad sanitary conditions and densely packed populations—prisons and ghettos, for instance—since the epidemic variety is spread by body lice. (Technically, typhus is a group of related infectious diseases.) But they do occur: there was an outbreak among the Los Angeles homeless population in 2018-2019.

Those who contract typhus experience a sudden fever and accompanying flu-like symptoms, followed five to nine days later by a rash that gradually spreads over the body. If left untreated with antibiotics, the patient begins to show signs of meningoencephalitis (infection of the brain)—sensitivity to light, seizures, and delirium, for instance—before slipping into a coma and, often, dying. There is no vaccine against typhus, even today. It’s usually prevented by limiting human exposure to the disease vectors (lice) by improving the conditions in which outbreaks can flourish.

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#bacteriology, #epidemiology, #gaming-culture, #history, #infectious-diseases, #mathematics, #science, #statistics, #typhus, #warsaw-ghetto, #world-war-ii

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Conflicting Virus Data in Texas Raises Distrust of the Government

Delays, discrepancies and abrupt leaps in coronavirus case and death counts in Texas have baffled residents and frustrated local officials. Here is what has gone awry.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #disease-rates, #harris-county-tex, #hidalgo-county-tex, #local-government, #nueces-county-tex, #states-us, #statistics, #texas

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Why an Accurate Census Is So Important

The Census Bureau’s move to cut its collection period short by one month in the midst of an already challenging pandemic has unnerved pollsters.

#census, #census-bureau, #polls-and-public-opinion, #presidential-election-of-2020, #statistics, #trump-donald-j

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How to Think Like an Epidemiologist

Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you.

#bayes-thomas, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #disease-rates, #gopnik-alison, #holmes-susan, #lipsitch-marc, #spiegelhalter-david, #statistics, #tests-medical, #your-feed-health, #your-feed-science

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Baseball in Empty Stadiums Is Weird. How Will It Affect Outcomes?

Players, coaches and analysts of all stripes are watching this season’s games to see what effect — if any — the absence of fans has on the games themselves.

#baseball, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #major-league-baseball, #stadiums-and-arenas, #statistics

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GDP Q2 Report: Why You’ll See Two Figures for Decline

Official data for second-quarter economic output arrives Thursday, and while it will be unquestionably bad, there are different ways of looking at it.

#commerce-department, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #economics-theory-and-philosophy, #gross-domestic-product, #new-york-times, #shutdowns-institutional, #statistics, #united-states-economy

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Trump Suggests Virus Death Count Is Inflated. Most Experts Doubt It

Senior White House and health officials have sought new ways to find the extent of infections and deaths, questioning whether official counts are inflating the toll of the virus.

#birx-deborah-l, #centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #national-center-for-health-statistics, #statistics, #tests-medical, #trump-donald-j, #united-states-politics-and-government

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America’s True Covid Toll Already Exceeds 100,000

The reported numbers leave out thousands of deaths clearly resulting from the pandemic.

#centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #states-us, #statistics, #terrorism, #tests-medical, #united-states-politics-and-government

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Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu

A COVID-19 blood test is administered outside of Delmont Medical Care on April 22, 2020 in Franklin Square, New York. The test identifies antibodies to the coronavirus.

Enlarge / A COVID-19 blood test is administered outside of Delmont Medical Care on April 22, 2020 in Franklin Square, New York. The test identifies antibodies to the coronavirus. (credit: Getty | Al Bello)

Frustrated statisticians and epidemiologists took to social media this week to call out substantial flaws in two widely publicized studies trying to estimate the true spread of COVID-19 in two California counties, Santa Clara and Los Angeles.

The studies suggested that far more people in each of the counties have been infected with the new coronavirus than thought—that is, they estimated that true case counts in the two counties are up to 85 times and 55 times the number of the currently confirmed cases in the counties, respectively. Accordingly, this suggests that COVID-19 is far less deadly than thought. The large case counts in relation to unchanged number of deaths put COVID-19’s fatality rate in the same range as seasonal flu.

How dangerous is this?

We dig into the details of the studies below, but it’s important to note that neither of them have been published in a scientific journal, nor have they gone through standard peer-review for scientific vetting. Instead, they have been posted online in draft form (a commonplace occurrence amid a rapidly evolving pandemic that inclines researchers to have fast access to data, however uncertain).

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#antibody-tests, #covid-19, #public-health, #santa-clara, #sars-cov-2, #science, #seroprevalence, #stanford, #statistics

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China Raises Coronavirus Death Toll by 50% in Wuhan

Officials facing skepticism about their credibility also bumped up their tally of infections in the city where the pandemic emerged.

#china, #coronavirus-2019-ncov, #epidemics, #propaganda, #statistics

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Virus Deaths Mount, but N.Y. Avoids Predicted Surge at Hospitals So Far

Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end.

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #cuomo-andrew-m, #deaths-fatalities, #hospitals, #institute-for-health-metrics-and-evaluation, #medical-devices, #new-york-state, #statistics, #united-states-politics-and-government, #ventilators-medical

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Germany Has Relatively Few Deaths From Coronavirus. Why?

The country is not immune to the pandemic. So what explains its current low fatality rate?

#coronavirus-2019-ncov, #deaths-fatalities, #germany, #italy, #merkel-angela, #statistics

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